Washington's 5th district: 2026 House race
Washington's 5th district is held by Michael Baumgartner (Republican). Michael Baumgartner leads in reported fundraising with $1.7M. Forecasters rate it Safe R.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner | REP | Incumbent | $1.7M | $976K | $954K |
| Carmela Conroy | DEM | Challenger | $396K | $335K | $74K |
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)8
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Powell | IND | Challenger | $392K | $392K | $0 |
| David Womack | DEM | Challenger | $131K | $96K | $36K |
| Bajun Mavalwalla | DEM | Challenger | $128K | $113K | $15K |
| Kevin Fagan | DEM | Challenger | $45K | $45K | $0 |
| Richard Freudenberg | DEM | Challenger | $42K | $40K | $1,579 |
| Kyle B. Usrey | IND | Challenger | $30K | $13K | $17K |
| Ann Marie Danimus | IND | Challenger | $16K | $16K | $48 |
| Aaron Matthew Croft | IND | Challenger | $6,710 | $6,699 | $0 |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Consensus (median of 8): Safe R Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe R | 2025-02-06 | dated |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | 2025-03-07 | dated |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | 2025-08-14 | dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Likely R | 2026-09-08 | |
| Split Ticket | Safe R | 2026-07-28 | dated |
| The Economist | Safe R | 2026-06-04 | dated |
| RealClearPolitics | Likely R | 2026-05-24 | dated |
| Fox News | Safe R | 2026-08-05 | dated |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
No Polymarket market was found for this race.
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Last time (2024)R +21.4
Michael Baumgartner won by 21.4 points, with 396,693 votes counted.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner | Republican | 240,619 | 60.7% |
| Carmela Conroy | Democratic | 156,074 | 39.3% |
Reported Results as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), top three shown. Under the district lines used in 2024.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 788,007 |
| Median age | 38.7 |
| Median household income | $75,273 ±$1,248 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 31.7% |
| White, not Hispanic | 79.2% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 1.6% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 2.3% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 8.9% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 65.5% |
| People below the poverty line | 12.5% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 5.8% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Public attention in this race2 candidates with an article
| Candidate | Party | Views, 30 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner | REP | 4,469 | 65% |
| Carmela Conroy | DEM | 2,359 | 35% |
Reported English Wikipedia page views, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-13. Only candidates with an article are counted; views show curiosity, not support.
Data on this page5/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 07/15/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 8 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Missing | no market found |
| 2024 result | Have it | same district lines |
| Financial disclosures | Have it | 2 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.