Competitive races
The closest House races of 2026
41 districts are rated Lean or closer by the median of the forecasters we track. 3 more have forecasters on opposite sides.
15toss-ups
41Lean or closer
3races where forecasters split
Toss-ups: 15 racesmedian of the listed forecasters
| District | Consensus | Cook | Inside Elections | Sabato | Decision Desk HQ | Polymarket D / R | 2024 margin | Incumbent | Raised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-06 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Likely D | — | R +2.5 | Juan Ciscomani (REP) | $13.5M |
| CO-08 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Likely D | — | R +0.8 | Gabe Evans (REP) | $9.7M |
| FL-14 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D | 68 / 30 | new map | Kathy Castor (DEM) | $4.5M |
| FL-22 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up | Toss-up | 54 / 46 | new map | Open | $4.9M |
| IA-02 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up | Toss-up | — | R +15.5 | Open | $3.6M |
| MI-07 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D | — | R +3.7 | Tom Barrett (REP) | $7.4M |
| MI-10 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up | Toss-up | 64 / 34 | R +6.1 | Open | $2.8M |
| NC-01 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up | Toss-up | — | new map | Don Davis (DEM) | $8.1M |
| NC-11 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean R | Toss-up | Toss-up | 76 / 24 | new map | Open | $3.1M |
| NY-17 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | 60 / 40 | R +1.9 | Mike Lawler (REP) | $12.5M |
| OH-07 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | — | new map | Max Miller (REP) | $2.7M |
| OH-09 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up | Lean D | — | new map | Marcy Kaptur (DEM) | $5.8M |
| PA-08 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | — | R +1.6 | Rob Bresnahan (REP) | $9.8M |
| TX-15 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up | Toss-up | 80 / 18 | new map | Monica De La Cruz (REP) | $8.2M |
| WI-03 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Likely D | — | R +2.8 | Derrick Van Orden (REP) | $16.1M |
Tilt: 5 racesmedian of the listed forecasters
| District | Consensus | Cook | Inside Elections | Sabato | Decision Desk HQ | Polymarket D / R | 2024 margin | Incumbent | Raised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI-04 | Tilt R | Toss-up | Tilt R | Toss-up | Lean R | — | R +11.7 | Bill Huizenga (REP) | $6.7M |
| PA-10 | Tilt D | Lean D | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D | 80 / 20 | R +1.2 | Scott Perry (REP) | $13.9M |
| TX-34 | Tilt D | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D | Lean D | 84 / 16 | new map | Vicente Gonzalez (DEM) | $6.6M |
| VA-01 | Tilt R | Toss-up | Lean R | Toss-up | Lean R | — | R +12.8 | Rob Wittman (REP) | $6.2M |
| VA-02 | Tilt D | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D | Likely D | — | R +3.8 | Jen Kiggans (REP) | $10.6M |
Lean: 21 racesmedian of the listed forecasters
| District | Consensus | Cook | Inside Elections | Sabato | Decision Desk HQ | Polymarket D / R | 2024 margin | Incumbent | Raised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 | Lean D | Lean D | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D | — | R +3.8 | Open | $1.8M |
| CA-13 | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Likely D | 96 / 3 | — | Adam Gray (DEM) | $6.4M |
| CA-22 | Lean D | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D | Likely D | — | — | David Valadao (REP) | $7.6M |
| CA-48 | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Likely D | 94 / 8 | — | Open | $4.4M |
| CO-05 | Lean R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Likely R | — | R +13.8 | Jeff Crank (REP) | $5.3M |
| FL-25 | Lean D | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean D | Lean D | 78 / 22 | new map | Jared Moskowitz (DEM) | $5.3M |
| FL-27 | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | 34 / 62 | — | María Elvira Salazar (REP) | $2.7M |
| IA-01 | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Likely D | — | unopposed | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (REP) | $14.4M |
| IA-03 | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D | Toss-up | Lean D | — | R +3.8 | Zach Nunn (REP) | $10.2M |
| KY-06 | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | — | R +26.0 | Open | $3.0M |
| ME-02 | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | — | D +0.6 | Open | $3.8M |
| MT-01 | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | — | R +7.7 | Open | $2.7M |
| NJ-07 | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Likely D | — | R +5.4 | Thomas Kean Jr. (REP) | $9.2M |
| NM-02 | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Likely D | — | D +4.2 | Gabe Vasquez (DEM) | $5.3M |
| OH-01 | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Likely D | — | new map | Greg Landsman (DEM) | $6.1M |
| PA-01 | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | — | R +12.8 | Brian Fitzpatrick (REP) | $8.7M |
| PA-07 | Lean D | Lean D | Toss-up | Lean D | Lean D | — | R +1.0 | Ryan Mackenzie (REP) | $6.7M |
| TX-28 | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Likely D | 91 / 8 | new map | Henry Cuellar (DEM) | $3.6M |
| TX-35 | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Toss-up | 60 / 40 | new map | Open | $2.0M |
| WA-03 | Lean D | Lean D | Toss-up | Lean D | Likely D | — | — | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (DEM) | $8.5M |
| WI-01 | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | — | R +10.2 | Bryan Steil (REP) | $6.2M |
Senate races rated Lean or closer: 8median of the listed forecasters
Governor races rated Lean or closer: 12median of the listed forecasters
| State | Consensus | Polymarket | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Toss-up | D 50 / R 48 | |
| Nevada | Toss-up | D 52 / R 48 | |
| Ohio | Toss-up | D 72 / R 28 | |
| Wisconsin | Toss-up | D 82 / R 18 | The market favors Democrats (82%) while the forecaster median calls it Toss-up. |
| Alaska | Lean D | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 77% | |
| Arizona | Lean D | D 88 / R 10 | |
| Florida | Lean R | D 20 / R 80 | |
| Iowa | Lean D | D 88 / R 12 | |
| Kansas | Lean R | D 23 / R 74 | |
| Michigan | Lean D | D 95 / R 5 | |
| Oregon | Lean D | D 76 / R 24 | |
| Texas | Lean R | D 22 / R 78 |
Estimate Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Dates and methods are on each forecaster's page.