Decision Desk HQ
A statistical forecast model plus election-night race calls.
Owner: Decision Desk HQ
Method: Probabilistic model. Its live forecast page is JavaScript-rendered, so we link to it; district ratings on race pages come from Wikipedia compilations, with the date listed there.
Last update we know of: 2026-10-12
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Known affiliations
Decision Desk HQ is the exclusive election-data partner of NewsNation and The Hill (Nexstar Media Group) under an agreement covering the 2025 and 2026 elections. It is a contractual partner, not a Nexstar subsidiary.
Basis: Nexstar press release, 31 March 2025. Checked 2026-10-15. Read the document
What statistical models can and cannot tell you
A model combines polls, past results, fundraising and other fundamentals into a probability for each race, then adds them up for control of the House. Two good models can disagree because they weight those inputs differently.
Best for: a consistent, repeatable estimate. Weak for: late shocks the inputs have not yet captured.
Other statistical models we track
See how it fits next to the others on the forecasts page.