How this site works
Plain rules for what we show, where it comes from, and what we leave out.
Two kinds of numbers
Reported Figures reported to a government agency, such as campaign money from the Federal Election Commission. We copy them and show the filing period.
Estimate Anything that is a guess about the future: prediction-market prices, model probabilities, expert ratings. We label them, date them and name who produced them.
Where data comes from
Candidates, party, incumbency and finance totals: FEC bulk data, refreshed from the agency’s files. Market odds: the public Polymarket API. District ratings: each forecaster’s own call as compiled in Wikipedia’s state articles (CC BY-SA), with the date listed there. National model probabilities: links to each publisher with the update date we last saw.
Who is on the ballot
For the U.S. House, the FEC lists everyone who filed, including people who lost primaries. We take the list of November nominees from Wikipedia’s state articles on the 2026 House elections (names, party and incumbent flag only, under CC BY-SA), match each name to an FEC record, and call a race verified only when its list is internally consistent. Filers who are not on a verified list stay on the site, clearly marked, but are left out of rankings and search-engine indexing. Races we cannot verify yet show every filer.
Other contests
Senate and governor races, other statewide offices, state legislatures, ballot measures and local elections use the lists Wikipedia editors compile for each contest (CC BY-SA), with the revision linked on the page, and the same two labels apply: reported facts are marked as such, forecasts are marked as estimates.
Other measures
Sitting members’ voting positions are DW-NOMINATE scores from Voteview: a statistical scaling of roll-call votes, shown only for members who have a voting record. Public attention is the number of English Wikipedia page views in the last 30 days, a measure of curiosity rather than support. Money flags are plain rules on FEC totals. Each appears with its source and a note on what it does not show.
Affiliations
When a forecaster, outlet or market has a documented tie to a company, party or business, we flag it and link the document. “None on file” is not a claim that none exists.
Neutrality
We do not endorse candidates or parties and we do not write ratings of our own.