Sabato's Crystal Ball
Expert race-by-race ratings from the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Owner: University of Virginia Center for Politics
Method: Editorial ratings by analysts, not a statistical model.
Last update we know of: 2026-10-08
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Known affiliations
None on file. That means we have not found a documented tie, not that none exists. Tell us if you know of one.
What expert ratings can and cannot tell you
Analysts sort each race into categories such as Solid, Likely, Lean and Toss-up using judgment, interviews and data. There is no formula to inspect, but experienced raters often catch local factors that numbers miss.
Best for: race-by-race context. Weak for: comparing across raters, since their scales differ.
Other expert ratings we track
See how it fits next to the others on the forecasts page.