Who publishes the forecasts
We aggregate; we do not endorse. Each forecaster has a page showing who owns it and any relationship we have documented.
| Source | Type | Owner | Known ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | market | Polymarket (private company) | — |
| Decision Desk HQ | model | Decision Desk HQ | ⚑ 1 |
| The Hill | media | Nexstar Media Group | ⚑ 1 |
| Split Ticket | model | Split Ticket / The Argument | ⚑ 1 |
| Cook Political Report | rating | Cook Political Report | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | rating | University of Virginia Center for Politics | — |
| Inside Elections | rating | Inside Elections | — |
| 270toWin consensus | aggregate | 270toWin | — |
What each type of source tells youmarkets, models, ratings
Prediction markets
A market turns opinions into prices: people put money behind an outcome, and the price is read as a probability. It reacts within minutes to news, which models cannot do, but a small number of large traders can move it, and markets in low-volume races can be thin.
Statistical models
A model combines polls, past results, fundraising and other fundamentals into a probability for each race, then adds them up for control of the House. Two good models can disagree because they weight those inputs differently.
Expert ratings
Analysts sort each race into categories such as Solid, Likely, Lean and Toss-up using judgment, interviews and data. There is no formula to inspect, but experienced raters often catch local factors that numbers miss.
Aggregators
An aggregator averages or maps the output of other forecasters. It is a convenient summary, but it inherits whatever assumptions its inputs have.
Media outlets
A news outlet that publishes or presents forecasts produced by someone else. We list it because ownership of the outlet can matter when you weigh what it shows.