Split Ticket
A data-driven forecast model. It is now published through The Argument.
Owner: Split Ticket / The Argument
Method: Probabilistic model that uses its own likely-voter polling; it is more skeptical of prediction markets than some peers.
Last update we know of: not recorded
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Known affiliations
Split Ticket's model is published through The Argument, where Split Ticket cofounder Lakshya Jain is Director of Political Data.
Basis: 270toWin write-up of the model. Checked 2026-10-15. Read the document
What statistical models can and cannot tell you
A model combines polls, past results, fundraising and other fundamentals into a probability for each race, then adds them up for control of the House. Two good models can disagree because they weight those inputs differently.
Best for: a consistent, repeatable estimate. Weak for: late shocks the inputs have not yet captured.
Other statistical models we track
See how it fits next to the others on the forecasts page.