Senate races
U.S. Senate: the 35 races on the ballot November 3, 2026
8 are rated Lean or closer by the median forecaster. Each state links to candidates, ratings and prediction-market odds.
Who controls the Senate? Estimate
Democrats 63.5% · Republicans 36.5%
Polymarket price read as a probability. Volume $6.6M, snapshot 2026-10-15. View the market
35races
8Lean or closer
34with a Polymarket market
All 35 racessorted by closeness
| State | Forecaster consensus | Polymarket | Incumbent | Candidates | Raised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Toss-up | Mary Peltola 74% | Dan S. Sullivan | verifying | $27.7M |
| Iowa | Toss-up | D 42 / R 58 | Open | 3 | $6.3M |
| Kansas | Toss-up | D 38 / R 62 | Roger Marshall | 3 | $8.2M |
| Maine | Toss-up | D 60 / R 42 | Susan Collins | 2 | $16.2M |
| Ohio (special) | Toss-up | D 62 / R 38 | Jon Husted | 4 | $53.0M |
| Texas | Toss-up | D 62 / R 38 | Open | 3 | $77.8M |
| Michigan | Tilt D | D 70 / R 30 | Open | 6 | $25.4M |
| Nebraska | Lean R | Pete Ricketts (R) 72% | Pete Ricketts | verifying | $17.0M |
| New Hampshire | Lean D | D 88 / R 12 | Open | 3 | $19.6M |
| Florida (special) | Likely R | D 9 / R 90 | Ashley Moody | 3 | $12.2M |
| Georgia | Likely D | D 96 / R 4 | Jon Ossoff | 2 | $84.8M |
| Minnesota | Likely D | D 88 / R 12 | Open | 4 | $5.3M |
| North Carolina | Likely D | D 96 / R 4 | Open | 4 | $46.2M |
| South Carolina | Likely R | D 16 / R 86 | Darline Graham | 4 | $11.2M |
| Alabama | Safe R | — | Open | 2 | $3.9M |
| Arkansas | Safe R | D 6 / R 95 | Tom Cotton | 3 | $8.5M |
| Colorado | Safe D | D 98 / R 2 | John Hickenlooper | 6 | $9.5M |
| Delaware | Safe D | Democrat 98% | Chris Coons | 2 | $4.3M |
| Idaho | Safe R | Jim Risch (R) 95% | Jim Risch | verifying | $4.0M |
| Illinois | Safe D | D 98 / R 1 | Open | 3 | $8.5M |
| Kentucky | Safe R | D 3 / R 97 | Open | 3 | $11.1M |
| Louisiana | Safe R | D 6 / R 94 | Open | 2 | $8.2M |
| Massachusetts | Safe D | D 98 / R 2 | Ed Markey | 4 | $7.5M |
| Mississippi | Safe R | D 10 / R 92 | Cindy Hyde-Smith | 3 | $6.3M |
| Montana | Safe R | D 1 / R 94 | Open | 4 | $5.5M |
| New Jersey | Safe D | D 97 / R 3 | Cory Booker | 5 | $18.9M |
| New Mexico | Safe D | D 97 / R 2 | Ben Ray Luján | 2 | $5.7M |
| Oklahoma | Safe R | D 2 / R 97 | Open | 5 | $10.1M |
| Oregon | Safe D | D 98 / R 2 | Jeff Merkley | 4 | $4.7M |
| Rhode Island | Safe D | D 98 / R 2 | Jack Reed | 3 | $3.6M |
| South Dakota | Safe R | Mike Rounds (R) 94% | Mike Rounds | verifying | $4.0M |
| Tennessee | Safe R | D 4 / R 96 | Bill Hagerty | 10 | $7.2M |
| Virginia | Safe D | D 98 / R 2 | Mark Warner | 2 | $18.3M |
| West Virginia | Safe R | D 1 / R 98 | Shelley Moore Capito | 3 | $4.7M |
| Wyoming | Safe R | D 1 / R 98 | Open | 2 | $2.5M |
Estimate Forecaster median of the ratings listed on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0); market prices are crowd-implied probabilities.