Governor races
Governor: the 36 races on the ballot November 3, 2026
12 are rated Lean or closer by the median forecaster. Each state links to candidates, ratings and prediction-market odds.
36races
12Lean or closer
35with a Polymarket market
All 36 racessorted by closeness
| State | Forecaster consensus | Polymarket | Incumbent | Candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Toss-up | D 50 / R 48 | Open | 2 |
| Nevada | Toss-up | D 52 / R 48 | Joe Lombardo | 3 |
| Ohio | Toss-up | D 72 / R 28 | Open | 3 |
| Wisconsin | Toss-up | D 82 / R 18 | Open | 4 |
| Alaska | Lean D | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 77% | Dan S. Sullivan | 6 |
| Arizona | Lean D | D 88 / R 10 | Katie Hobbs | 4 |
| Florida | Lean R | D 20 / R 80 | Open | 9 |
| Iowa | Lean D | D 88 / R 12 | Open | 2 |
| Kansas | Lean R | D 23 / R 74 | Open | 2 |
| Michigan | Lean D | D 95 / R 5 | Open | 5 |
| Oregon | Lean D | D 76 / R 24 | Tina Kotek | 3 |
| Texas | Lean R | D 22 / R 78 | Greg Abbott | 3 |
| Minnesota | Likely D | D 96 / R 4 | Open | 3 |
| Nebraska | Likely R | D 10 / R 91 | Jim Pillen | 5 |
| New Hampshire | Likely R | D 6 / R 93 | Kelly Ayotte | 3 |
| Vermont | Likely R | D 24 / R 76 | Phil Scott | verifying |
| Alabama | Safe R | D 6 / R 94 | Open | 2 |
| Arkansas | Safe R | D 3 / R 97 | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | verifying |
| California | Safe D | — | Open | 2 |
| Colorado | Safe D | D 96 / R 3 | Open | 7 |
| Connecticut | Safe D | D 96 / R 3 | Ned Lamont | verifying |
| Hawaii | Safe D | D 99 / R 1 | Josh Green | 4 |
| Idaho | Safe R | D 2 / R 98 | Brad Little | verifying |
| Illinois | Safe D | D 98 / R 2 | JB Pritzker | 3 |
| Massachusetts | Safe D | D 96 / R 4 | Maura Healey | verifying |
| Maryland | Safe D | D 98 / R 2 | Wes Moore | 4 |
| Maine | Safe D | D 95 / R 5 | Open | verifying |
| New Mexico | Safe D | D 92 / R 8 | Open | 3 |
| New York | Safe D | D 95 / R 5 | Open | 2 |
| Oklahoma | Safe R | D 8 / R 90 | Open | verifying |
| Pennsylvania | Safe D | D 98 / R 2 | Josh Shapiro | 4 |
| Rhode Island | Safe D | Helena Foulkes (D) 97% | Open | 5 |
| South Carolina | Safe R | D 5 / R 94 | Open | 4 |
| South Dakota | Safe R | D 2 / R 98 | Larry Rhoden | verifying |
| Tennessee | Safe R | D 6 / R 94 | Open | verifying |
| Wyoming | Safe R | D 1 / R 98 | Open | verifying |
Estimate Forecaster median of the ratings listed on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0); market prices are crowd-implied probabilities.