South Dakota governor race 2026
Larry Rhoden is the incumbent. Forecasters rate it Safe R. Polymarket prices Democrats at 2% and Republicans at 98%.
Candidates5 listed
| Candidate for governor | Running mate | Party | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ahlers | — | Democratic | candidate |
| Dusty Johnson | — | South Dakota Republican | candidate |
| Jon Hansen | — | South Dakota Republican | candidate |
| Larry Rhoden | — | South Dakota Republican | incumbent |
| Toby Doeden | — | South Dakota Republican | candidate |
Nominees for this race are still being verified, so the list may include candidates who did not advance.
Reported Names, party and status as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Governor races are funded under state law, so campaign money is filed with the state, not the FEC; we do not show it yet.
Forecasts and ratingsforecaster median and Polymarket
Consensus (median of 7): Safe R Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe R | 2026-10-01 | |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | 2026-10-01 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | 2026-10-06 | |
| Decision Desk HQ | Safe R | 2026-10-11 | |
| Fox News | Safe R | 2026-10-06 | |
| RealClearPolitics | Safe R | 2026-10-05 | |
| Silver Bulletin | Safe R | 2026-10-11 |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 1.8% · Republican 98.0% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $27,212, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket