Polymarket
A prediction market: traders buy and sell contracts on outcomes, and the price is read as a probability.
Estimate Snapshot 2026-10-15. Compare with other forecasts
Owner: Polymarket (private company)
Method: Crowd-implied probability from market prices. Not a model; it reflects who is willing to bet, and can be moved by a few large traders.
Last update we know of: 2026-10-14
Known affiliations
None on file. That means we have not found a documented tie, not that none exists. Tell us if you know of one.
What prediction markets can and cannot tell you
A market turns opinions into prices: people put money behind an outcome, and the price is read as a probability. It reacts within minutes to news, which models cannot do, but a small number of large traders can move it, and markets in low-volume races can be thin.
Best for: a fast read of sentiment. Weak for: districts with little trading.
See how it fits next to the others on the forecasts page.