South Dakota U.S. Senate race 2026
Mike Rounds is the incumbent. Forecasters rate it Safe R. Polymarket favors Mike Rounds (R) (94%).
Candidates2 listed
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Rounds | Republican | incumbent | $3.2M | $2.3M | $2.7M | FEC |
| Brian Bengs | Independent politician | candidate | $782K | $731K | $51K | FEC |
Nominees for this race are still being verified, so the list may include candidates who did not advance.
Reported Names, party and status as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Money is from FEC filings through each candidate’s latest report. This race on FEC.gov
Forecasts and ratingsforecaster median and Polymarket
Consensus (median of 10): Safe R Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe R | 2026-10-06 | |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | 2026-10-01 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | 2026-10-06 | |
| Decision Desk HQ | Safe R | 2026-10-07 | |
| Split Ticket | Likely R | 2026-10-07 | |
| The Economist | Likely R | 2026-10-07 | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Safe R | 2026-10-07 | |
| Fox News | Safe R | 2026-10-06 | |
| RealClearPolitics | Safe R | 2026-10-05 | |
| Silver Bulletin | Safe R | 2026-10-07 |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Mike Rounds (R) 94.5% · Brian Bengs (I) 5.2% · Democrat 0.1% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability. Volume $60K, snapshot 2026-10-15. View the market