Texas governor race 2026
Greg Abbott is the incumbent. Forecasters rate it Lean R. Polymarket prices Democrats at 22% and Republicans at 78%.
Candidates3 listed
| Candidate for governor | Running mate | Party | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gina Hinojosa | — | Democratic | nominee |
| Greg Abbott | — | Republican | incumbent |
| Pat Dixon | — | Libertarian | nominee |
Reported Names, party and status as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Governor races are funded under state law, so campaign money is filed with the state, not the FEC; we do not show it yet.
Forecasts and ratingsforecaster median and Polymarket
The ratings are two or more steps apart (for example, Toss-up to Likely).
Consensus (median of 7): Lean R Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean R | 2026-10-01 | |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | 2026-10-01 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R | 2026-10-06 | |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean R | 2026-10-11 | |
| Fox News | Lean R | 2026-10-06 | |
| RealClearPolitics | Toss-up | 2026-10-05 | |
| Silver Bulletin | Lean R | 2026-10-11 |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 22.5% · Republican 78.0% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $563,102, snapshot 2026-10-15. View the market · About Polymarket