Texas U.S. Senate race 2026
Forecasters rate it Toss-up. Polymarket prices Democrats at 62% and Republicans at 38%.
Candidates3 listed
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | Democratic | nominee | $68.6M | $47.0M | $21.5M | FEC |
| Ken Paxton | Republican | nominee | $9.2M | $7.5M | $1.8M | FEC |
| Ted Brown | Libertarian | nominee | $13K | $9,787 | $2,949 | FEC |
Reported Names, party and status as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Money is from FEC filings through each candidate’s latest report. This race on FEC.gov
Forecasts and ratingsforecaster median and Polymarket
Some raters lean Democratic and others lean Republican in this race.
Consensus (median of 12): Toss-up Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up | 2026-10-06 | |
| Inside Elections | Tilt R | 2026-10-01 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | 2026-10-06 | |
| Decision Desk HQ | Toss-up | 2026-10-07 | |
| Split Ticket | Lean D | 2026-10-07 | flip from current holder |
| The Economist | Toss-up | 2026-10-07 | |
| CBS News | Toss-up | 2026-10-06 | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Toss-up | 2026-10-13 | |
| Fox News | Toss-up | 2026-10-06 | |
| MS NOW | Toss-up | 2026-09-16 | |
| RealClearPolitics | Toss-up | 2026-10-05 | |
| Silver Bulletin | Lean D | 2026-10-07 | flip from current holder |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 62.5% · Republican 37.5% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $3,687,300, snapshot 2026-10-15. View the market · About Polymarket