Florida's 11th district: 2026 House race
Florida's 11th district has no incumbent running. Joe Strada leads in reported fundraising with $5.2M. Forecasters rate it Safe R.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Strada | REP | Open seat | $5.2M | $3.0M | $2.2M |
| James Pericola | DEM | Open seat | $197K | $175K | $22K |
Also on the November ballot, with no FEC campaign record on file: Ralph Groves (Libertarian).
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)7
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Md Jd Razack Nizam | REP | Open seat | $956K | $863K | $93K |
| Carey Baker | REP | Open seat | $442K | $442K | $0 |
| Daniel Webster | REP | Incumbent | $387K | $473K | $14K |
| Tim Wilkins | REP | Open seat | $329K | $205K | $125K |
| Anthony Sabatini | REP | Open seat | $29K | $29K | $0 |
| Barbara Barbie Harden Hall | DEM | Open seat | $24K | $21K | $11K |
| Royal Webster | DEM | Open seat | $18K | $16K | $2,577 |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
The ratings are two or more steps apart (for example, Toss-up to Likely).
Consensus (median of 5): Safe R Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe R | 2025-02-06 | dated |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | 2026-05-05 | dated |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | 2025-04-10 | dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Likely R | 2026-07-14 | dated |
| The Economist | Lean R | 2026-05-06 | dated |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 9.5% · Republican 89.5% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $30,951, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Last time (2024)new map
Florida redrew its congressional map for 2026. These results are for the district with the same number under the old lines, so they do not describe the new territory.
Daniel Webster won by 20.8 points, with 446,003 votes counted.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Webster | Republican | 269,277 | 60.4% |
| Barbie Harden Hall | Democratic | 176,726 | 39.6% |
Reported Results as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), top three shown. Under the district lines used in 2024.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 826,010 |
| Median age | 44.9 |
| Median household income | $84,548 ±$1,586 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 35.9% |
| White, not Hispanic | 57.4% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 11.9% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 3.9% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 20.8% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 77.5% |
| People below the poverty line | 9.5% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 15.9% |
Heads up: Florida drew a new congressional map for 2026. These figures describe the old district lines, so they will not match the people who vote in this race.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Data on this page3/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 09/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 5 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $31K |
| 2024 result | Partial | old map: the state redrew its districts |
| Financial disclosures | Missing | 0 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.