Florida's 16th district: 2026 House race
Florida's 16th district has no incumbent running. Sydney Gruters leads in reported fundraising with $1.1M. Forecasters rate it Likely R.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Gruters | REP | Open seat | $1.1M | $465K | $622K |
| Kelly Kirschner | DEM | Open seat | $297K | $216K | $81K |
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)8
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Buchanan | REP | Incumbent | $930K | $983K | $996K |
| Tamika Lyles | DEM | Open seat | $122K | $67K | $55K |
| Jonathan Harris | DEM | Open seat | $86K | $57K | $29K |
| Mark Davis | NPA | Open seat | $64K | $61K | $3,624 |
| Jan Schneider | DEM | Open seat | $56K | $22K | $75K |
| Glenn Keith Pearson | DEM | Open seat | $51K | $53K | -$870 |
| Edward Peter Pope | REP | Open seat | $49K | $22K | $27K |
| Jason Edward Speir | REP | Open seat | $45K | $44K | $1,320 |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
The ratings are two or more steps apart (for example, Toss-up to Likely).
Consensus (median of 5): Likely R Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe R | 2025-02-06 | dated |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | 2026-09-17 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | 2026-05-04 | dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Likely R | 2026-07-14 | dated |
| The Economist | Lean R | 2026-05-06 | dated |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 17.5% · Republican 82.5% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $27,276, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Last time (2024)new map
Florida redrew its congressional map for 2026. These results are for the district with the same number under the old lines, so they do not describe the new territory.
Vern Buchanan won by 19.0 points, with 416,141 votes counted.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vern Buchanan | Republican | 247,516 | 59.5% |
| Jan Schneider | Democratic | 168,625 | 40.5% |
Reported Results as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), top three shown. Under the district lines used in 2024.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 830,753 |
| Median age | 43.1 |
| Median household income | $84,737 ±$1,588 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 35.8% |
| White, not Hispanic | 58.6% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 11.8% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 2.9% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 21.7% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 73.8% |
| People below the poverty line | 9.7% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 14.6% |
Heads up: Florida drew a new congressional map for 2026. These figures describe the old district lines, so they will not match the people who vote in this race.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Data on this page3/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 07/29/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 5 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $27K |
| 2024 result | Partial | old map: the state redrew its districts |
| Financial disclosures | Partial | 1 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.