New York's 17th district: 2026 House race
New York's 17th district is held by Mike Lawler (Republican). Mike Lawler leads in reported fundraising with $8.2M. Forecasters rate it Toss-up.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Lawler | REP | Incumbent | $8.2M | $3.5M | $4.8M |
| Cait Conley | DEM | Challenger | $4.3M | $3.0M | $1.3M |
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)6
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Chatzky | DEM | Challenger | $11.7M | $11.7M | $789 |
| Beth Davidson | DEM | Challenger | $2.2M | $2.0M | $184K |
| Jessica Reinmann | DEM | Challenger | $655K | $655K | $0 |
| John Sullivan | DEM | Challenger | $485K | $483K | $2,386 |
| Mike Sacks | DEM | Challenger | $298K | $281K | $17K |
| John Cappello | DEM | Challenger | $79K | $76K | $3,149 |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Consensus (median of 4): Toss-up Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up | 2026-01-15 | dated |
| Inside Elections | Toss-up | 2025-11-11 | dated |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | 2026-07-30 | dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Toss-up | 2026-07-14 | dated |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 59.5% · Republican 40.5% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $67,838, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Last time (2024)R +1.9
Mike Lawler won by 1.9 points, with 362,353 votes counted.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Lawler | Republican | 180,924 | 49.9% |
| Mondaire Jones | Democratic | 173,899 | 48.0% |
| Anthony Frascone | Working Families | 7,530 | 2.1% |
Reported Results as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), top three shown. Under the district lines used in 2024.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 777,627 |
| Median age | 40.1 |
| Median household income | $125,890 ±$2,101 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 49.5% |
| White, not Hispanic | 63.1% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 7.2% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 4.9% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 20.9% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 74.3% |
| People below the poverty line | 10.7% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 19.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Public attention in this race1 candidate with an article
| Candidate | Party | Views, 30 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Lawler | REP | 41,218 | 100% |
Reported English Wikipedia page views, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-13. Only candidates with an article are counted; views show curiosity, not support.
In the news1 recent story
- Most dramatic moments from Rep Mike Lawler's fiery debate against Dem Cait Conley in battle for House controlFox News · 2026-10-15
Headlines link to the publishers; we show no article text. The same story from several outlets appears once. A flag marks an outlet with a documented tie we have on file; none shown does not mean none exists. Updated 2026-10-15.
Data on this page4/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 06/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 4 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $68K |
| 2024 result | Have it | same district lines |
| Financial disclosures | Partial | 1 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.