Pennsylvania's 16th district: 2026 House race
Pennsylvania's 16th district has no incumbent running. Justin Wagner leads in reported fundraising with $67K. Forecasters rate it Safe R.
Candidates and money1 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Wagner | DEM | Challenger | $67K | $34K | $38K |
Also on the November ballot, with no FEC campaign record on file: Mike Kelly (Republican).
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)1
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George J. Kelly Jr. | REP | Incumbent | $1.2M | $882K | $1.3M |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Consensus (median of 4): Safe R Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe R | 2025-09-11 | dated |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | 2025-09-11 | dated |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | 2025-04-10 | dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Safe R | 2026-09-08 |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 4.0% · Republican 94.2% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $75,481, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Last time (2024)R +27.4
Mike Kelly won by 27.4 points, with 403,632 votes counted.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Kelly | Republican | 256,923 | 63.7% |
| Preston Nouri | Democratic | 146,709 | 36.3% |
Reported Results as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), top three shown. Under the district lines used in 2024.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 762,592 |
| Median age | 42.9 |
| Median household income | $67,764 ±$1,093 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 30.0% |
| White, not Hispanic | 87.6% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 4.1% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 1.3% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 2.9% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 72.7% |
| People below the poverty line | 12.4% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 2.9% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Data on this page5/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 06/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 4 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $75K |
| 2024 result | Have it | same district lines |
| Financial disclosures | Have it | 1 of 1 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.