South Dakota at-large district: 2026 House race
South Dakota at-large district has no incumbent running. Marty Jackley leads in reported fundraising with $1.4M.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Jackley | REP | Open seat | $1.4M | $376K | $1.1M |
| Nikki Gronli | DEM | Open seat | $262K | $151K | $111K |
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)3
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dusty Johnson | REP | Incumbent | $1.7M | $5.6M | $1.4M |
| Casey Crabtree | REP | Open seat | $255K | $255K | $0 |
| Billy Mawhiney | DEM | Open seat | $31K | $31K | $0 |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
No forecaster ratings are listed for this race.
Prediction market
Democratic 3.5% · Republican 95.0% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $37,394, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 907,428 |
| Median age | 38.0 |
| Median household income | $75,081 ±$888 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 31.9% |
| White, not Hispanic | 79.8% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 2.1% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 1.4% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 4.8% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 68.6% |
| People below the poverty line | 11.9% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 4.0% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Public attention in this race1 candidate with an article
| Candidate | Party | Views, 30 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Jackley | REP | 1,539 | 100% |
Reported English Wikipedia page views, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-13. Only candidates with an article are counted; views show curiosity, not support.
Data on this page3/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 06/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Missing | none listed |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $37K |
| 2024 result | Missing | not available |
| Financial disclosures | Have it | 2 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.