New Mexico U.S. Senate race 2026
Ben Ray Luján is the incumbent. Forecasters rate it Safe D. Polymarket prices Democrats at 97% and Republicans at 2%.
Candidates2 listed
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Ray Luján | Democratic | incumbent | $5.6M | $2.4M | $4.4M | FEC |
| Larry Marker | Republican | nominee | $92K | $81K | $1,942 | FEC |
Reported Names, party and status as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Money is from FEC filings through each candidate’s latest report. This race on FEC.gov
Forecasts and ratingsforecaster median and Polymarket
Consensus (median of 10): Safe D Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe D | 2026-10-06 | |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | 2026-10-01 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | 2026-10-06 | |
| Decision Desk HQ | Safe D | 2026-10-07 | |
| Split Ticket | Safe D | 2026-10-07 | |
| The Economist | Safe D | 2026-10-07 | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Safe D | 2026-10-07 | |
| Fox News | Safe D | 2026-10-06 | |
| RealClearPolitics | Likely D | 2026-10-05 | |
| Silver Bulletin | Safe D | 2026-10-07 |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 97.2% · Republican 2.1% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $27,347, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket