Oregon governor race 2026
Tina Kotek is the incumbent. Forecasters rate it Lean D. Polymarket prices Democrats at 76% and Republicans at 24%.
Candidates3 listed
| Candidate for governor | Running mate | Party | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tina Kotek | — | Democratic | incumbent |
| Christine Drazan | — | Republican | nominee |
| Brett Smith | — | Pacific Green | nominee |
Reported Names, party and status as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Governor races are funded under state law, so campaign money is filed with the state, not the FEC; we do not show it yet.
Forecasts and ratingsforecaster median and Polymarket
The ratings are two or more steps apart (for example, Toss-up to Likely).
Consensus (median of 7): Lean D Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | 2026-10-01 | |
| Inside Elections | Lean D | 2026-10-01 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | 2026-10-06 | |
| Decision Desk HQ | Likely D | 2026-10-11 | |
| Fox News | Lean D | 2026-10-06 | |
| RealClearPolitics | Toss-up | 2026-10-12 | |
| Silver Bulletin | Likely D | 2026-10-11 |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 75.5% · Republican 23.5% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $88,286, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket