Oregon U.S. Senate race 2026
Jeff Merkley is the incumbent. Forecasters rate it Safe D. Polymarket prices Democrats at 98% and Republicans at 2%.
Candidates4 listed
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Merkley | Democratic | incumbent | $4.5M | $2.0M | $6.8M | FEC |
| David Brock Smith | Republican | nominee | $121K | $92K | $29K | FEC |
| Chris Henry | Oregon Progressive | nominee | — | — | — | — |
| Gary Dye | Libertarian | nominee | — | — | — | — |
Reported Names, party and status as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Money is from FEC filings through each candidate’s latest report. This race on FEC.gov
Forecasts and ratingsforecaster median and Polymarket
Consensus (median of 10): Safe D Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe D | 2026-10-06 | |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | 2026-10-01 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | 2026-10-06 | |
| Decision Desk HQ | Safe D | 2026-10-07 | |
| Split Ticket | Safe D | 2026-10-07 | |
| The Economist | Safe D | 2026-10-07 | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Safe D | 2026-10-07 | |
| Fox News | Safe D | 2026-10-06 | |
| RealClearPolitics | Safe D | 2026-10-05 | |
| Silver Bulletin | Safe D | 2026-10-07 |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 97.8% · Republican 2.1% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $7,446, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket