New York's 12th district: 2026 House race
New York's 12th district has no incumbent running. Micah Lasher leads in reported fundraising with $3.3M. Forecasters rate it Safe D.
Candidates and money4 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Lasher | DEM | Open seat | $3.3M | $2.2M | $1.1M |
| Caroline Shinkle | REP | Open seat | $155K | $71K | $84K |
| Karen Ortiz | IND | Open seat | $46K | $23K | $23K |
| Wilneida Negron | IDP | Open seat | $38K | $38K | -$18 |
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)15
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Conway | DEM | Open seat | $7.1M | $7.1M | $18K |
| John (jack) Bouvier Kenne Schlossberg | DEM | Open seat | $4.0M | $3.6M | $426K |
| Alexander Bores | DEM | Open seat | $4.0M | $3.0M | $1.0M |
| Alan Pardee | DEM | Open seat | $1.2M | $1.2M | $37K |
| Nina Schwalbe | DEM | Open seat | $687K | $678K | $11K |
| Liam Elkind | DEM | Open seat | $610K | $467K | $144K |
| Jami Floyd | DEM | Open seat | $605K | $605K | $0 |
| Mathew Shurka | DEM | Open seat | $330K | $330K | $0 |
| Jerrold L. Nadler | DEM | Incumbent | $258K | $358K | $95K |
| Laura L. Esq. Dunn | DEM | Open seat | $211K | $170K | $46K |
| Cameron Kasky | DEM | Open seat | $177K | $177K | $0 |
| Christopher Diep | DEM | Open seat | $90K | $90K | $0 |
| Amy Jordan | REP | Open seat | $59K | $59K | $0 |
| Patrick John Timmins | DEM | Open seat | $35K | $36K | -$1,025 |
| Massimiliano Zappone | REP | Open seat | $15K | $12K | $3,118 |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Consensus (median of 4): Safe D Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe D | 2025-02-06 | dated |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | 2025-03-07 | dated |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | 2025-09-18 | dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Safe D | 2026-07-14 | dated |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 97.4% · Republican 0.1% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $34,639, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Last time (2024)D +58.8
Jerry Nadler won by 58.8 points, with 306,100 votes counted.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Nadler | Democratic | 243,111 | 79.4% |
| Michael Zumbluskas | Republican | 62,989 | 20.6% |
Reported Results as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), top three shown. Under the district lines used in 2024.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 719,940 |
| Median age | 40.3 |
| Median household income | $147,775 ±$3,450 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 80.3% |
| White, not Hispanic | 64.9% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 4.7% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 13.1% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 11.6% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 32.0% |
| People below the poverty line | 9.5% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 25.0% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Public attention in this race2 candidates with an article
| Candidate | Party | Views, 30 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Lasher | DEM | 8,103 | 95% |
| Karen Ortiz | IND | 439 | 5% |
Reported English Wikipedia page views, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-13. Only candidates with an article are counted; views show curiosity, not support.
Data on this page4/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 06/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 4 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $35K |
| 2024 result | Have it | same district lines |
| Financial disclosures | Partial | 3 of 4 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.