New York's 20th district: 2026 House race
New York's 20th district is held by Paul Tonko (Democratic). Paul Tonko leads in reported fundraising with $958K. Forecasters rate it Safe D.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Tonko | DEM | Incumbent | $958K | $1.2M | $404K |
| Ralph Ambrosio | REP | Challenger | $61K | $48K | $12K |
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Consensus (median of 4): Safe D Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe D | 2025-02-06 | dated |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | 2025-03-07 | dated |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | 2025-09-18 | dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Safe D | 2026-07-14 | dated |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 97.2% · Republican 2.7% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $47,226, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Last time (2024)D +24.4
Paul Tonko won by 24.4 points, with 321,963 votes counted.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Tonko | Democratic | 200,354 | 62.2% |
| Kevin Waltz | Republican | 121,609 | 37.8% |
Reported Results as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), top three shown. Under the district lines used in 2024.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 782,695 |
| Median age | 39.7 |
| Median household income | $86,491 ±$1,157 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 42.9% |
| White, not Hispanic | 72.4% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 8.4% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 5.4% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 7.4% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 61.3% |
| People below the poverty line | 11.9% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 9.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Public attention in this race1 candidate with an article
| Candidate | Party | Views, 30 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Tonko | DEM | 2,457 | 100% |
Reported English Wikipedia page views, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-13. Only candidates with an article are counted; views show curiosity, not support.
Data on this page5/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 09/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 4 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $47K |
| 2024 result | Have it | same district lines |
| Financial disclosures | Have it | 2 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.