New York's 21st district: 2026 House race
New York's 21st district has no incumbent running. Anthony Constantino leads in reported fundraising with $9.5M. Forecasters rate it Likely R.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Constantino | REP | Open seat | $9.5M | $8.7M | $3.0M |
| Blake Gendebien | DEM | Open seat | $5.5M | $3.1M | $2.6M |
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)5
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elise M. Stefanik | REP | Incumbent | $5.0M | $2.9M | $10.8M |
| Robert Smullen | REP | Open seat | $1.3M | $1.2M | $192K |
| Dylan Hewitt | DEM | Open seat | $352K | $310K | $42K |
| Stuart Jameson Amoriell | DEM | Open seat | $138K | $130K | $7,474 |
| Paula Collins | DEM | Open seat | $14K | $14K | $95K |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Consensus (median of 4): Likely R Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely R | 2026-09-25 | |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | 2026-10-01 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | 2026-09-16 | |
| Decision Desk HQ | Likely R | 2026-09-29 |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 24.0% · Republican 74.5% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $97,348, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Last time (2024)R +23.4
Elise Stefanik won by 23.4 points, with 316,753 votes counted.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elise Stefanik | Republican | 195,464 | 61.7% |
| Paula Collins | Democratic | 121,289 | 38.3% |
Reported Results as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), top three shown. Under the district lines used in 2024.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 770,419 |
| Median age | 42.4 |
| Median household income | $70,983 ±$729 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 26.2% |
| White, not Hispanic | 88.6% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 2.1% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 1.0% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 3.8% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 72.6% |
| People below the poverty line | 13.1% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 3.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Data on this page4/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 06/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 4 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $97K |
| 2024 result | Have it | same district lines |
| Financial disclosures | Partial | 1 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.