Arkansas U.S. Senate race 2026
Tom Cotton is the incumbent. Forecasters rate it Safe R. Polymarket prices Democrats at 6% and Republicans at 95%.
Candidates3 listed
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hallie Shoffner | Democratic | nominee | $2.3M | $1.4M | $864K | FEC |
| Tom Cotton | Republican | incumbent | $6.2M | $3.8M | $9.9M | FEC |
| Jeff Wadlin | Libertarian | nominee | $29K | $20K | $8,469 | FEC |
Reported Names, party and status as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Money is from FEC filings through each candidate’s latest report. This race on FEC.gov
Forecasts and ratingsforecaster median and Polymarket
Consensus (median of 10): Safe R Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe R | 2026-10-06 | |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | 2026-10-01 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | 2026-10-06 | |
| Decision Desk HQ | Safe R | 2026-10-07 | |
| Split Ticket | Safe R | 2026-10-07 | |
| The Economist | Likely R | 2026-10-07 | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Safe R | 2026-10-07 | |
| Fox News | Safe R | 2026-10-06 | |
| RealClearPolitics | Safe R | 2026-10-05 | |
| Silver Bulletin | Safe R | 2026-10-07 |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 5.6% · Republican 94.6% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $39,296, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket