Florida U.S. Senate special election race 2026
Ashley Moody is the incumbent. Forecasters rate it Likely R. Polymarket prices Democrats at 9% and Republicans at 90%.
Candidates3 listed
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angie Nixon | Democratic | nominee | $975K | $710K | $265K | FEC |
| Ashley Moody | Republican | incumbent | $11.3M | $2.8M | $8.5M | FEC |
| Neil J. Gillespie | Independent | nominee | — | — | — | — |
Reported Names, party and status as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Money is from FEC filings through each candidate’s latest report. This race on FEC.gov
Forecasts and ratingsforecaster median and Polymarket
The ratings are two or more steps apart (for example, Toss-up to Likely).
Consensus (median of 11): Likely R Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe R | 2026-10-06 | |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | 2026-10-01 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | 2026-10-06 | |
| Decision Desk HQ | Likely R | 2026-10-07 | |
| Split Ticket | Likely R | 2026-10-07 | |
| The Economist | Likely R | 2026-10-07 | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely R | 2026-10-07 | |
| Fox News | Safe R | 2026-10-06 | |
| MS NOW | Likely R | 2026-09-16 | |
| RealClearPolitics | Lean R | 2026-10-05 | |
| Silver Bulletin | Likely R | 2026-10-07 |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 9.0% · Republican 90.5% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $227,806, snapshot 2026-10-15. View the market · About Polymarket