Michigan's 10th district: 2026 House race
Michigan's 10th district has no incumbent running. Michael Bouchard Jr. leads in reported fundraising with $1.6M. Forecasters rate it Toss-up.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bouchard Jr. | REP | Open seat | $1.6M | $521K | $1.1M |
| Christina Hines | DEM | Open seat | $1.2M | $1.1M | $158K |
Also on the November ballot, with no FEC campaign record on file: Mike Saliba (Libertarian), Kwabena Nkromo (Green of the United States), Andrea L. Kirby (Working Class).
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)9
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Chung | DEM | Open seat | $1.9M | $1.3M | $621K |
| Tim Greimel | DEM | Open seat | $1.3M | $1.3M | $17K |
| Robert Lulgjuraj | REP | Open seat | $1.3M | $569K | $720K |
| John James | REP | Incumbent | $554K | $1.3M | $0 |
| Justin Kirk | REP | Open seat | $465K | $465K | $154 |
| Alexander Hawkins | DEM | Open seat | $376K | $376K | $0 |
| George Adams | DEM | Open seat | $198K | $25K | $173K |
| Steven Elliott | REP | Challenger | $48K | $80K | $0 |
| Steffan Demetropoulos | REP | Open seat | $6,870 | $6,479 | $3,642 |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Some raters lean Democratic and others lean Republican in this race.
Consensus (median of 6): Toss-up Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up | 2026-08-25 | dated |
| Inside Elections | Tilt R | 2026-05-21 | dated |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | 2026-05-26 | dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Toss-up | 2026-07-14 | dated |
| The Economist | Likely D | 2026-05-22 | flip from current holder, dated |
| Silver Bulletin | Lean D | 2026-08-15 | flip from current holder, dated |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 64.5% · Republican 34.5% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $8,956, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Last time (2024)R +6.1
John James won by 6.1 points, with 425,301 votes counted.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| John James | Republican | 217,437 | 51.1% |
| Carl Marlinga | Democratic | 191,363 | 45.0% |
| Andrea L. Kirby | Working Class | 11,162 | 2.6% |
Reported Results as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), top three shown. Under the district lines used in 2024.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 771,566 |
| Median age | 41.1 |
| Median household income | $76,410 ±$1,164 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 30.5% |
| White, not Hispanic | 71.1% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 13.6% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 6.8% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 3.2% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 72.3% |
| People below the poverty line | 10.7% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 14.0% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Data on this page4/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 09/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 6 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $8,956 |
| 2024 result | Have it | same district lines |
| Financial disclosures | Partial | 1 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.