Pennsylvania's 10th district: 2026 House race
Pennsylvania's 10th district is held by Scott Perry (Republican). Janelle Stelson leads in reported fundraising with $8.7M. Forecasters rate it Tilt D.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janelle Stelson | DEM | Challenger | $8.7M | $6.2M | $2.5M |
| Scott Perry | REP | Incumbent | $5.2M | $2.4M | $2.8M |
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)3
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Douglas | DEM | Challenger | $156K | $156K | $0 |
| Isabelle A. Harman | IND | Challenger | $67K | $61K | $5,108 |
| Karen Lynn Dalton | REP | Challenger | $16K | $16K | -$178 |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Consensus (median of 4): Tilt D Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | 2026-10-09 | flip from current holder |
| Inside Elections | Toss-up | 2026-05-21 | dated |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | 2025-04-10 | dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean D | 2026-08-07 | flip from current holder, dated |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 80.0% · Republican 19.5% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $12,486, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
The market favors Democrats (80%) while the forecaster median calls it Tilt D.
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Last time (2024)R +1.2
Scott Perry won by 1.2 points, with 406,001 votes counted.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Perry | Republican | 205,567 | 50.6% |
| Janelle Stelson | Democratic | 200,434 | 49.4% |
Reported Results as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), top three shown. Under the district lines used in 2024.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 779,640 |
| Median age | 40.2 |
| Median household income | $81,964 ±$1,342 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 34.7% |
| White, not Hispanic | 70.4% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 9.8% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 4.8% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 10.4% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 69.4% |
| People below the poverty line | 10.0% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 7.8% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Public attention in this race2 candidates with an article
| Candidate | Party | Views, 30 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Janelle Stelson | DEM | 14,348 | 66% |
| Scott Perry | REP | 7,429 | 34% |
Reported English Wikipedia page views, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-13. Only candidates with an article are counted; views show curiosity, not support.
Data on this page4/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 09/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 4 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $12K |
| 2024 result | Have it | same district lines |
| Financial disclosures | Partial | 1 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.