Pennsylvania's 11th district: 2026 House race
Pennsylvania's 11th district is held by Lloyd Smucker (Republican). Lloyd Smucker leads in reported fundraising with $1.5M. Forecasters rate it Safe R.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Smucker | REP | Incumbent | $1.5M | $1.6M | $811K |
| Nancy Mannion | DEM | Challenger | $214K | $167K | $47K |
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)1
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Renee Klimm | DEM | Challenger | $5,355 | $5,445 | $210 |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Consensus (median of 4): Safe R Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe R | 2025-09-11 | dated |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | 2025-09-11 | dated |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | 2025-04-10 | dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Likely R | 2026-09-25 |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 4.6% · Republican 95.0% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $56,418, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Last time (2024)R +25.8
Lloyd Smucker won by 25.8 points, with 403,313 votes counted.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Smucker | Republican | 253,672 | 62.9% |
| Jim Atkinson | Democratic | 149,641 | 37.1% |
Reported Results as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), top three shown. Under the district lines used in 2024.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 772,863 |
| Median age | 40.2 |
| Median household income | $87,221 ±$1,023 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 30.9% |
| White, not Hispanic | 81.1% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 3.4% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 2.1% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 9.7% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 72.2% |
| People below the poverty line | 7.9% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 5.0% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Public attention in this race1 candidate with an article
| Candidate | Party | Views, 30 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Smucker | REP | 2,569 | 100% |
Reported English Wikipedia page views, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-13. Only candidates with an article are counted; views show curiosity, not support.
Data on this page4/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 06/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 4 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $56K |
| 2024 result | Have it | same district lines |
| Financial disclosures | Partial | 1 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.