2026 ยท Forecasts
Where forecasters disagree
Races in which the ratings split, differ widely, or differ from the prediction market.
2Races with opposite-side ratings
33Races two or more steps apart
4Races where the market differs
Forecasters often agree. The races below are the ones where they do not. That can happen because they use different inputs, update at different times, or define their categories differently, so a disagreement is information about uncertainty, not a sign that someone is wrong. We track 495 House, Senate and governor races that have at least one published rating.
Ratings are each publisher’s own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0) and dated; the market is Polymarket, snapshot 2026-10-31. To see what each kind of source can and cannot tell you, read how to read forecasts; to see who stands behind each rater, see sources.
Forecasters on opposite sides: 22 races
At least one rater leans Democratic and at least one leans Republican in the same race.
| Race | Office | Median rating | Individual ratings | Polymarket D / R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate race | Senate | Toss-up | Cook Toss-up · Inside Toss-up · Sabato Toss-up · DDHQ Toss-up · Split Ticket Toss-up · The Economist Toss-up | 52 / 48 |
| Michigan's 10th district (MI-10) | House | Tilt D | Cook Toss-up · Inside Tilt R · Sabato Toss-up · DDHQ Lean D · The Economist Likely D · Silver Bulletin Lean D | 76 / 24 |
Two or more steps apart: 3333 races
The highest and lowest ratings differ by two or more steps on the scale (for example Toss-up to Likely).
| Race | Office | Median rating | Individual ratings | Polymarket D / R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate race | Senate | Lean D | Cook Toss-up · Inside Tilt D · Sabato Lean D · DDHQ Lean D · Split Ticket Lean D · The Economist Lean D | 80 / 20 |
| Ohio governor's race | Governor | Lean D | Cook Lean D · Inside Tilt D · Sabato Lean D · DDHQ Lean D · Silver Bulletin Likely D · Fox News Lean D | 82 / 19 |
| Wisconsin governor's race | Governor | Lean D | Cook Lean D · Inside Tilt D · Sabato Lean D · DDHQ Lean D · Silver Bulletin Likely D · Fox News Toss-up | 84 / 16 |
| Florida governor's race | Governor | Lean R | Cook Lean R · Inside Lean R · Sabato Lean R · DDHQ Lean R · Silver Bulletin Likely R · Fox News Lean R | 36 / 64 |
| Arizona governor's race | Governor | Lean D | Cook Likely D · Inside Tilt D · Sabato Likely D · DDHQ Likely D · Silver Bulletin Safe D · Fox News Lean D | 92 / 6 |
| Florida Senate race | Senate | Likely R | Cook Likely R · Inside Likely R · Sabato Likely R · DDHQ Likely R · Split Ticket Likely R · The Economist Likely R | 9 / 90 |
| Georgia Senate race | Senate | Likely D | Cook Likely D · Inside Likely D · Sabato Likely D · DDHQ Likely D · Split Ticket Safe D · The Economist Likely D | 97 / 3 |
| North Carolina Senate race | Senate | Likely D | Cook Likely D · Inside Lean D · Sabato Likely D · DDHQ Likely D · Split Ticket Safe D · The Economist Likely D | 98 / 2 |
| Oregon governor's race | Governor | Lean D | Cook Lean D · Inside Tilt D · Sabato Lean D · DDHQ Likely D · Silver Bulletin Likely D · Fox News Lean D | 82 / 18 |
| Texas's 23rd district (TX-23) | House | Lean R | Cook Lean R · Inside Likely R · Sabato Lean R · DDHQ Lean R · Silver Bulletin Toss-up | 46 / 54 |
| New Mexico governor's race | Governor | Safe D | Cook Safe D · Inside Likely D · Sabato Safe D · DDHQ Likely D · Silver Bulletin Safe D · Fox News Safe D | 96 / 4 |
| South Carolina governor's race | Governor | Safe R | Cook Safe R · Inside Safe R · Sabato Safe R · DDHQ Lean R · Silver Bulletin Safe R · Fox News Safe R | 7 / 93 |
| Nebraska governor's race | Governor | Likely R | Cook Lean R · Inside Likely R · Sabato Likely R · DDHQ Likely R · Silver Bulletin Likely R · Fox News Likely R | 10 / 90 |
| Florida's 27th district (FL-27) | House | Lean R | Cook Lean R · Inside Lean R · Sabato Lean R · DDHQ Likely R · The Economist Safe R | 36 / 64 |
| New Hampshire governor's race | Governor | Likely R | Cook Likely R · Inside Safe R · Sabato Likely R · DDHQ Lean R · Silver Bulletin Likely R · Fox News Likely R | 7 / 93 |
| Florida's 11th district (FL-11) | House | Safe R | Cook Safe R · Inside Safe R · Sabato Safe R · DDHQ Likely R · The Economist Lean R | 12 / 88 |
| Texas's 34th district (TX-34) | House | Lean D | Cook Lean D · Inside Toss-up · Sabato Lean D · DDHQ Likely D | 89 / 11 |
| Alaska governor's race | Governor | Lean D | Cook Lean D · Inside Tilt D · Sabato Lean D · DDHQ Lean D · Silver Bulletin Safe D · Fox News Toss-up | — |
| Arizona's 2nd district (AZ-02) | House | Lean R | Cook Lean R · Inside Lean R · Sabato Lean R · DDHQ Likely R · The Economist Toss-up | — |
| Arizona's 5th district (AZ-05) | House | Safe R | Cook Safe R · Inside Safe R · Sabato Safe R · DDHQ Likely R · The Economist Lean R | — |
| California's 22nd district (CA-22) | House | Lean D | Cook Toss-up · Inside Toss-up · Sabato Lean D · DDHQ Likely D · The Economist Lean D | — |
| Colorado's 3rd district (CO-03) | House | Likely R | Cook Likely R · Inside Likely R · Sabato Likely R · DDHQ Toss-up · The Economist Lean R | — |
| Colorado's 5th district (CO-05) | House | Toss-up | Cook Toss-up · Inside Toss-up · Sabato Toss-up · DDHQ Likely R · The Economist Likely R | — |
| Colorado's 8th district (CO-08) | House | Lean D | Cook Lean D · Inside Tilt D · Sabato Lean D · DDHQ Likely D · The Economist Toss-up | — |
| Florida's 4th district (FL-04) | House | Safe R | Cook Safe R · Inside Safe R · Sabato Safe R · DDHQ Lean R · The Economist Likely R | — |
| Florida's 7th district (FL-07) | House | Lean R | Cook Lean R · Inside Likely R · Sabato Likely R · DDHQ Lean R · The Economist Toss-up | — |
| Florida's 9th district (FL-09) | House | Lean R | Cook Lean R · Inside Likely R · Sabato Likely R · DDHQ Toss-up · The Economist Toss-up | — |
| Michigan's 7th district (MI-07) | House | Toss-up | Cook Toss-up · Inside Toss-up · Sabato Toss-up · DDHQ Likely D · The Economist Lean D | — |
| Missouri's 2nd district (MO-02) | House | Lean R | Cook Likely R · Inside Safe R · Sabato Toss-up · DDHQ Lean R | — |
| Nebraska Senate race | Senate | Lean R | Cook Lean R · Inside Tilt R · Sabato Lean R · DDHQ Lean R · Split Ticket Lean R · The Economist Likely R | — |
| New York's 1st district (NY-01) | House | Likely R | Cook Safe R · Inside Safe R · Sabato Likely R · DDHQ Lean R | — |
| Virginia's 5th district (VA-05) | House | Lean R | Cook Likely R · Inside Lean R · Sabato Toss-up · DDHQ Lean R | — |
| Washington's 3rd district (WA-03) | House | Lean D | Cook Lean D · Inside Toss-up · Sabato Lean D · DDHQ Likely D · Split Ticket Likely D | — |
Market and forecasters point different ways: 44 races
The Polymarket price favours one side while the median rating favours the other, or the market is far from what the rating implies.
| Race | Office | Median rating | Individual ratings | Polymarket D / R | What differs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada governor's race | Governor | Toss-up | Cook Toss-up · Inside Toss-up · Sabato Toss-up · DDHQ Toss-up · Silver Bulletin Toss-up · Fox News Toss-up | 78 / 22 | The market favors Democrats (78%) while the forecaster median calls it Toss-up. |
| Florida's 14th district (FL-14) | House | Tilt D | Cook Toss-up · Inside Tilt D · Sabato Toss-up · DDHQ Lean D · The Economist Lean D | 78 / 22 | The market favors Democrats (78%) while the forecaster median calls it Tilt D. |
| Texas's 15th district (TX-15) | House | Tilt D | Cook Toss-up · Inside Tilt D · Sabato Lean D · DDHQ Toss-up | 88 / 12 | The market favors Democrats (88%) while the forecaster median calls it Tilt D. |
| Michigan's 10th district (MI-10) | House | Tilt D | Cook Toss-up · Inside Tilt R · Sabato Toss-up · DDHQ Lean D · The Economist Likely D · Silver Bulletin Lean D | 76 / 24 | The market favors Democrats (76%) while the forecaster median calls it Tilt D. |