Forecasts vs results
Forecasts vs results: how ratings and markets compared with the winners
What forecasters and prediction markets said before the vote, next to the winner now listed, race by race. Unofficial until states certify.
Races where the median rating leaned to the winner's party (5 rated a toss-up)59 of 61
Races where Polymarket favoured the winner's party57 of 59
Races where PredictIt favoured the winner's party51 of 55
What this page compares
Before the election, forecasters rated each race and markets priced it. Now that winners are listed, this page puts the two side by side for the 66 Senate and governor races with a listed Democratic or Republican winner. “Matched” means the rating leaned, or the market favoured, the party of the winner listed today; a Toss-up rating counts as neither.
Read it with care. A forecast is a statement about uncertainty: a candidate with a 70% chance loses three times in ten, so some misses are expected from a well-calibrated source. A few dozen races are a small sample, the ratings and prices are the ones we saved on the morning of Election Day (2026-11-03 12:50 UTC, before polls opened), and the winners are unofficial until the states certify. This is not a ranking of sources, and we publish no forecast of our own.
59 of 61Races where the median rating leaned to the winner's party (5 rated a toss-up)
57 of 59Races where Polymarket favoured the winner's party
51 of 55Races where PredictIt favoured the winner's party
60 of 62Races where Kalshi favoured the winner's party
Races where the winner was not the favourite2 races
- South Carolina Senate race: Annie Andrews listed as the winner; the median rating was Lean R; most market sources favoured the other side
- Texas governor's race: Gina Hinojosa listed as the winner; the median rating was Lean R; most market sources favoured the other side
Every race comparedrating, 3 markets and the winner
| Race | Median rating before the vote | Rating vs winner | Polymarket | PredictIt | Kalshi | Winner listed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama governor's race | Safe R | ✓ matched | D 7% ✓ matched | D 11% ✓ matched | D 8% ✓ matched | Tommy Tuberville (R) |
| Arizona governor's race | Likely D | ✓ matched | D 94% ✓ matched | D 90% ✓ matched | D 92% ✓ matched | Katie Hobbs (D) |
| Arkansas governor's race | Safe R | ✓ matched | D 2% ✓ matched | — | D 2% ✓ matched | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) |
| California governor's race | Safe D | ✓ matched | — | — | D 97% ✓ matched | Xavier Becerra (D) |
| Colorado governor's race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 97% ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | D 97% ✓ matched | Phil Weiser (D) |
| Connecticut governor's race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | D 97% ✓ matched | Ned Lamont (D) |
| Florida governor's race | Lean R | ✓ matched | D 36% ✓ matched | D 37% ✓ matched | D 37% ✓ matched | Byron Donalds (R) |
| Georgia governor's race | Tilt D | ✓ matched | D 71% ✓ matched | D 72% ✓ matched | D 68% ✓ matched | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) |
| Hawaii governor's race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | — | — | Josh Green (D) |
| Idaho governor's race | Safe R | ✓ matched | D 1% ✓ matched | — | D 2% ✓ matched | Brad Little (R) |
| Illinois governor's race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | — | D 97% ✓ matched | JB Pritzker (D) |
| Iowa governor's race | Lean D | ✓ matched | D 88% ✓ matched | D 92% ✓ matched | D 86% ✓ matched | Rob Sand (D) |
| Maine governor's race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 97% ✓ matched | — | D 96% ✓ matched | Hannah Pingree (D) |
| Maryland governor's race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 97% ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | Wes Moore (D) |
| Michigan governor's race | Lean D | ✓ matched | D 94% ✓ matched | D 95% ✓ matched | D 92% ✓ matched | Jocelyn Benson (D) |
| Minnesota governor's race | Likely D | ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | D 97% ✓ matched | Amy Klobuchar (D) |
| Nebraska governor's race | Likely R | ✓ matched | D 11% ✓ matched | D 20% ✓ matched | D 11% ✓ matched | Jim Pillen (R) |
| Nevada governor's race | Toss-up | — | D 76% ✓ matched | D 77% ✓ matched | D 76% ✓ matched | Aaron Ford (D) |
| New Hampshire governor's race | Likely R | ✓ matched | D 15% ✓ matched | D 100% ✗ other side | D 15% ✓ matched | Kelly Ayotte (R) |
| New Mexico governor's race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 96% ✓ matched | D 94% ✓ matched | D 95% ✓ matched | Deb Haaland (D) |
| New York governor's race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 96% ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | D 96% ✓ matched | Kathy Hochul (D) |
| Ohio governor's race | Lean D | ✓ matched | D 84% ✓ matched | D 83% ✓ matched | D 82% ✓ matched | Amy Acton (D) |
| Oklahoma governor's race | Likely R | ✓ matched | D 10% ✓ matched | — | D 11% ✓ matched | Mike Mazzei (R) |
| Oregon governor's race | Lean D | ✓ matched | D 85% ✓ matched | D 100% ✓ matched | D 84% ✓ matched | Tina Kotek (D) |
| Pennsylvania governor's race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 97% ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | Josh Shapiro (D) |
| Rhode Island governor's race | Safe D | ✓ matched | — | D 94% ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | Helena Foulkes (D) |
| South Carolina governor's race | Safe R | ✓ matched | D 5% ✓ matched | — | D 6% ✓ matched | Alan Wilson (R) |
| South Dakota governor's race | Safe R | ✓ matched | D 1% ✓ matched | — | D 2% ✓ matched | Larry Rhoden (R) |
| Tennessee governor's race | Safe R | ✓ matched | D 6% ✓ matched | — | D 7% ✓ matched | Marsha Blackburn (R) |
| Texas governor's race | Lean R | ✗ other side | D 38% ✗ other side | D 36% ✗ other side | D 38% ✗ other side | Gina Hinojosa (D) |
| Vermont governor's race | Likely R | ✓ matched | D 31% ✓ matched | D 42% ✓ matched | D 33% ✓ matched | Phil Scott (R) |
| Wisconsin governor's race | Lean D | ✓ matched | D 87% ✓ matched | D 84% ✓ matched | D 85% ✓ matched | David Crowley (D) |
| Wyoming governor's race | Safe R | ✓ matched | D 1% ✓ matched | — | D 1% ✓ matched | Eric Barlow (R) |
| Alabama Senate race | Safe R | ✓ matched | — | D 1% ✓ matched | D 3% ✓ matched | Barry Moore (R) |
| Arkansas Senate race | Safe R | ✓ matched | D 3% ✓ matched | D 4% ✓ matched | D 4% ✓ matched | Tom Cotton (R) |
| Colorado Senate race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | John Hickenlooper (D) |
| Delaware Senate race | Safe D | ✓ matched | — | D 99% ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | Chris Coons (D) |
| Florida Senate race | Likely R | ✓ matched | D 14% ✓ matched | D 15% ✓ matched | — | Ashley Moody (R) |
| Georgia Senate race | Likely D | ✓ matched | D 97% ✓ matched | D 96% ✓ matched | D 96% ✓ matched | Jon Ossoff (D) |
| Idaho Senate race | Safe R | ✓ matched | — | D 1% ✓ matched | D 1% ✓ matched | Jim Risch (R) |
| Illinois Senate race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | Juliana Stratton (D) |
| Iowa Senate race | Toss-up | — | D 54% ✓ matched | D 47% ✗ other side | D 52% ✓ matched | Josh Turek (D) |
| Kansas Senate race | Toss-up | — | D 64% ✓ matched | D 69% ✓ matched | D 62% ✓ matched | Adam Hamilton (D) |
| Kentucky Senate race | Safe R | ✓ matched | D 2% ✓ matched | D 4% ✓ matched | — | Andy Barr (R) |
| Louisiana Senate race | Likely R | ✓ matched | D 12% ✓ matched | D 15% ✓ matched | D 3% ✓ matched | Julia Letlow (R) |
| Maine Senate race | Tilt D | ✓ matched | D 73% ✓ matched | D 71% ✓ matched | D 72% ✓ matched | Troy Jackson (D) |
| Massachusetts Senate race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | Ed Markey (D) |
| Michigan Senate race | Lean D | ✓ matched | D 80% ✓ matched | D 77% ✓ matched | D 79% ✓ matched | Abdul El-Sayed (D) |
| Minnesota Senate race | Lean D | ✓ matched | D 92% ✓ matched | D 91% ✓ matched | D 91% ✓ matched | Peggy Flanagan (D) |
| Montana Senate race | Likely R | ✓ matched | D 0% ✓ matched | D 1% ✓ matched | D 1% ✓ matched | Kurt Alme (R) |
| Nebraska Senate race | Lean R | ✓ matched | — | D 1% ✓ matched | D 1% ✓ matched | Pete Ricketts (R) |
| New Hampshire Senate race | Lean D | ✓ matched | D 94% ✓ matched | D 95% ✓ matched | D 93% ✓ matched | Chris Pappas (D) |
| New Jersey Senate race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | Cory Booker (D) |
| New Mexico Senate race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | Ben Ray Luján (D) |
| North Carolina Senate race | Likely D | ✓ matched | D 98% ✓ matched | D 97% ✓ matched | D 97% ✓ matched | Roy Cooper (D) |
| Ohio Senate race | Toss-up | — | D 72% ✓ matched | D 76% ✓ matched | — | Sherrod Brown (D) |
| Oklahoma Senate race | Safe R | ✓ matched | D 1% ✓ matched | D 2% ✓ matched | D 2% ✓ matched | Kevin Hern (R) |
| Oregon Senate race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | Jeff Merkley (D) |
| Rhode Island Senate race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 96% ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | Jack Reed (D) |
| South Carolina Senate race | Lean R | ✗ other side | D 30% ✗ other side | D 36% ✗ other side | D 33% ✗ other side | Annie Andrews (D) |
| South Dakota Senate race | Safe R | ✓ matched | — | D 1% ✓ matched | D 1% ✓ matched | Mike Rounds (R) |
| Tennessee Senate race | Safe R | ✓ matched | D 2% ✓ matched | D 2% ✓ matched | D 2% ✓ matched | Bill Hagerty (R) |
| Texas Senate race | Toss-up | — | D 74% ✓ matched | D 73% ✓ matched | D 73% ✓ matched | James Talarico (D) |
| Virginia Senate race | Safe D | ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 99% ✓ matched | D 97% ✓ matched | Mark Warner (D) |
| West Virginia Senate race | Safe R | ✓ matched | D 1% ✓ matched | D 1% ✓ matched | D 2% ✓ matched | Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
| Wyoming Senate race | Safe R | ✓ matched | D 1% ✓ matched | D 5% ✓ matched | D 0% ✓ matched | Harriet Hageman (R) |
Estimate Ratings: median of the forecaster ratings listed on Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Prices: last-trade prices read as probabilities, frozen on the morning of Election Day. Winners: as listed in Wikipedia’s overview tables, checked 2026-11-10 19:43 UTC.
How often the market favourite wonby the size of the favourite's price
| Favourite's price | Polymarket: favourites that won | PredictIt | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50%–60% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| 60%–70% | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
| 70%–80% | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 |
| 80%–90% | 10 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 7 |
| 90%–100% | 38 of 38 | 36 of 37 | 44 of 44 |
Counts races in which that source had a price. Small counts: do not read a bucket as a rate.