Analysis
2026 election analysis: what changed, and what the numbers show
Seats that changed party, money raised and the winners, the closest races, and how districts moved since 2024: counts computed from the data on this site.
U.S. Senate seats that changed party7 D, 0 R
Governor seats that changed party5 D, 0 R
Senate races where the major-party nominee who had raised more won26 of 26
What this page is
These are comparisons computed from data already on this site: the winners and vote tables compiled from Wikipedia (unofficial until the states certify), campaign money reported to the FEC, and the 2024 House results. We count and compare; we do not explain why voters chose as they did, rate races or predict anything. The numbers move as Wikipedia editors enter more votes and as states certify, and the page is rebuilt with them.
7 D, 0 RU.S. Senate seats that changed party
5 D, 0 RGovernor seats that changed party
26 of 26Senate races where the major-party nominee who had raised more won
37Races with votes entered decided by under 5 points
6Decided by under 1 point
+7.6 pointsMedian change in the Democratic share, 55 districts with unchanged maps
Seats that changed partySenate and governors
U.S. Senate: 7 seats changed party, 10 held
| State | Winner listed | Party | Result as listed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Josh Turek | Democratic | Incumbent retiring. Democratic gain. |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton | Democratic | Incumbent lost reelection. Democratic gain. |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | Democratic | Incumbent lost reelection. Democratic gain. |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper | Democratic | Incumbent retiring. Democratic gain. |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Democratic | Interim appointee lost election. Democratic gain. |
| South Carolina | Annie Andrews | Democratic | Interim appointee lost election. Democratic gain. |
| Texas | James Talarico | Democratic | Incumbent lost renomination in runoff. Democratic gain. |
Governor: 5 seats changed party, 14 held
| State | Winner listed | Party | Result as listed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Democratic | Incumbent term-limited. Democratic gain. |
| Iowa | Rob Sand | Democratic | Incumbent retiring. Democratic gain. |
| Nevada | Aaron Ford | Democratic | Incumbent lost re-election. Democratic gain. |
| Ohio | Amy Acton | Democratic | Incumbent term-limited. Democratic gain. |
| Texas | Gina Hinojosa | Democratic | Incumbent lost re-election. Democratic gain. |
Source: the result text in Wikipedia’s Senate and governor overview tables (CC BY-SA 4.0), unofficial. “Gain” means the seat passed from the other party to the winner’s party.
Money raised and who won (Senate)FEC receipts of the Democratic and Republican nominees
| State | Democratic nominee: raised | Republican nominee: raised | Winner's party | Winner raised more? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | James Talarico: $146.3M | Ken Paxton: $22.3M | Democratic | yes |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff: $115.9M | Mike Collins: $10.7M | Democratic | yes |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown: $68.4M | Jon Husted: $19.9M | Democratic | yes |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper: $49.6M | Michael Whatley: $13.7M | Democratic | yes |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed: $53.8M | Mike Rogers: $23.0M | Democratic | yes |
| South Carolina | Annie Andrews: $24.2M | Darline Graham: $1.9M | Democratic | yes |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker: $21.3M | Justin Murphy: $68K | Democratic | yes |
| Virginia | Mark Warner: $20.2M | Bert Mizusawa: $1.1M | Democratic | yes |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas: $23.7M | John E. Sununu: $5.7M | Democratic | yes |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton: $19.2M | Roger Marshall: $5.4M | Democratic | yes |
| Oklahoma | N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas: $116K | Kevin Hern: $10.9M | Republican | yes |
| Kentucky | Charles Booker: $1.9M | Andy Barr: $12.5M | Republican | yes |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper: $9.5M | Mark Baisley: $138K | Democratic | yes |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján: $6.5M | Larry Marker: $99K | Democratic | yes |
| West Virginia | Rachel Fetty Anderson: $165K | Shelley Moore Capito: $5.4M | Republican | yes |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley: $5.4M | David Brock Smith: $311K | Democratic | yes |
| Delaware | Chris Coons: $5.0M | Michael Katz: $190K | Democratic | yes |
| Alabama | Everett Wess: $129K | Barry Moore: $4.6M | Republican | yes |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey: $6.0M | John Deaton: $1.7M | Democratic | yes |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed: $3.7M | Raymond McKay: $207K | Democratic | yes |
| Florida | Angie Nixon: $11.3M | Ashley Moody: $14.5M | Republican | yes |
| Arkansas | Hallie Shoffner: $4.0M | Tom Cotton: $7.1M | Republican | yes |
| Montana | Alani Bankhead: $191K | Kurt Alme: $3.0M | Republican | yes |
| Wyoming | James Byrd: $54K | Harriet Hageman: $2.8M | Republican | yes |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton: $7.2M | Don Tracy: $4.9M | Democratic | yes |
| Louisiana | Jamie Davis: $5.0M | Julia Letlow: $7.1M | Republican | yes |
FEC totals are receipts through each candidate’s latest filing and exclude outside spending. This is a count, not an explanation: money can follow expectations as well as shape them. Reported
The closest racesamong races with votes entered
| Race | Office | Leader | Runner-up | Margin (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN-01 (Minnesota) | house | Jake Johnson 50.0% (D) | Brad Finstad 49.9% (R) | 0.1 |
| NC-03 (North Carolina) | house | Greg Murphy 49.4% (R) | Raymond Smith Jr. 49.3% (D) | 0.1 |
| NC-05 (North Carolina) | house | Chuck Hubbard 48.7% (D) | Virginia Foxx 48.6% (R) | 0.1 |
| Mississippi Senate race | senate | Scott Colom 49.09% (D) | Cindy Hyde-Smith 48.81% (R) | 0.3 |
| NC-07 (North Carolina) | house | David Rouzer 49.9% (R) | Kimberly Hardy 49.1% (D) | 0.8 |
| SC-02 (South Carolina) | house | Joe Wilson 49.82% (R) | Zyon Khalifa 48.83% (D) | 1.0 |
| SC-01 (South Carolina) | house | Nancy Lacore 49.66% (D) | Jenny Costa Honeycutt 48.63% (R) | 1.0 |
| NC-10 (North Carolina) | house | Pat Harrigan 49.7% (R) | Ashley Bell 48.6% (D) | 1.1 |
| OK-05 (Oklahoma) | house | Stephanie Bice 49.49% (R) | Jena Nelson 48.22% (D) | 1.3 |
| OH-10 (Ohio) | house | Kristina Knickerbocker 49.3% (D) | Mike Turner 47.7% (R) | 1.6 |
| Louisiana Senate race | senate | Julia Letlow 50.88% (R) | Jamie Davis 49.12% (D) | 1.8 |
| MI-04 (Michigan) | house | Sean McCann 50.12% (D) | Bill Huizenga 48.35% (R) | 1.8 |
| AR-02 (Arkansas) | house | French Hill 50.9% (R) | Chris Jones 49.1% (D) | 1.8 |
| NC-08 (North Carolina) | house | Mark Harris 50.4% (R) | Colby Watson 48.6% (D) | 1.8 |
| CO-03 (Colorado) | house | Jeff Hurd 49.3% (R) | Dwayne Romero 47.4% (D) | 1.9 |
| FL-04 (Florida) | house | Aaron Bean 50.2% (R) | LaShonda Holloway 48.1% (D) | 2.1 |
| NC-14 (North Carolina) | house | LaKesha Womack 51.1% (D) | Tim Moore 48.9% (R) | 2.2 |
| NC-13 (North Carolina) | house | Paul Barringer 50.5% (D) | Brad Knott 48.1% (R) | 2.4 |
| Tennessee governor's race | governor | Marsha Blackburn 45.52% (R) | Jerri Green 42.95% (D) | 2.6 |
| NC-06 (North Carolina) | house | Cyril Jefferson 51.4% (D) | Addison McDowell 48.8% (R) | 2.6 |
Margins are computed from the vote tables on Wikipedia where votes have been entered: a partial list that grows as editors add votes. Unofficial.
Shift since 2024 in the House votedistricts with unchanged maps
| District | Democratic share 2024 | Democratic share 2026 | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| KY-06 (Kentucky) | 37.0% | 54.9% | +17.9 |
| IN-08 (Indiana) | 30.2% | 44.8% | +14.5 |
| NJ-07 (New Jersey) | 47.2% | 61.1% | +13.9 |
| IN-04 (Indiana) | 32.3% | 45.8% | +13.5 |
| IN-03 (Indiana) | 32.6% | 45.1% | +12.6 |
| IN-06 (Indiana) | 33.1% | 44.9% | +11.8 |
| IN-05 (Indiana) | 40.2% | 51.7% | +11.5 |
| OK-01 (Oklahoma) | 36.4% | 47.7% | +11.3 |
| IN-09 (Indiana) | 33.7% | 44.6% | +10.9 |
| SC-05 (South Carolina) | 36.4% | 47.2% | +10.8 |
| GA-01 (Georgia) | 38.0% | 48.6% | +10.6 |
| OK-05 (Oklahoma) | 39.3% | 49.3% | +10.0 |
| OK-04 (Oklahoma) | 30.2% | 40.3% | +10.0 |
| IA-02 (Iowa) | 42.1% | 52.1% | +10.0 |
| GA-09 (Georgia) | 31.0% | 40.7% | +9.7 |
| SC-02 (South Carolina) | 40.3% | 49.5% | +9.2 |
| NE-02 (Nebraska) | 49.1% | 58.1% | +9.1 |
| SC-03 (South Carolina) | 26.1% | 35.1% | +9.0 |
| KY-02 (Kentucky) | 26.9% | 35.9% | +9.0 |
| SC-01 (South Carolina) | 41.7% | 50.5% | +8.8 |
| IN-07 (Indiana) | 70.2% | 79.0% | +8.8 |
| IN-01 (Indiana) | 54.3% | 63.0% | +8.7 |
| MN-01 (Minnesota) | 41.4% | 50.0% | +8.6 |
| KY-03 (Kentucky) | 62.0% | 70.3% | +8.4 |
| SC-07 (South Carolina) | 35.0% | 43.3% | +8.2 |
| IA-04 (Iowa) | 32.8% | 40.9% | +8.2 |
| AR-02 (Arkansas) | 41.1% | 49.1% | +8.1 |
| SC-06 (South Carolina) | 61.8% | 69.4% | +7.6 |
| OK-02 (Oklahoma) | 22.4% | 29.9% | +7.5 |
| AR-01 (Arkansas) | 24.8% | 32.1% | +7.3 |
| MN-05 (Minnesota) | 75.2% | 82.5% | +7.3 |
| KY-01 (Kentucky) | 25.3% | 32.4% | +7.1 |
| MI-10 (Michigan) | 46.8% | 53.7% | +6.9 |
| MI-04 (Michigan) | 44.1% | 50.9% | +6.8 |
| MN-06 (Minnesota) | 37.5% | 44.2% | +6.7 |
| MI-05 (Michigan) | 33.3% | 39.5% | +6.2 |
| MI-01 (Michigan) | 39.1% | 45.1% | +6.1 |
| MN-04 (Minnesota) | 67.4% | 73.2% | +5.8 |
| MT-01 (Montana) | 46.0% | 51.8% | +5.8 |
| MI-13 (Michigan) | 73.7% | 79.4% | +5.7 |
| CO-02 (Colorado) | 70.3% | 76.0% | +5.7 |
| MN-03 (Minnesota) | 58.5% | 64.1% | +5.6 |
| MN-07 (Minnesota) | 29.5% | 35.1% | +5.6 |
| IA-03 (Iowa) | 48.1% | 53.6% | +5.6 |
| MI-06 (Michigan) | 63.9% | 69.0% | +5.1 |
| MI-09 (Michigan) | 30.6% | 35.6% | +5.0 |
| MI-12 (Michigan) | 73.3% | 78.2% | +4.9 |
| MN-08 (Minnesota) | 42.0% | 46.9% | +4.9 |
| MI-02 (Michigan) | 32.7% | 37.6% | +4.8 |
| MI-07 (Michigan) | 48.1% | 51.7% | +3.6 |
| MI-08 (Michigan) | 53.5% | 57.0% | +3.5 |
| MI-03 (Michigan) | 55.1% | 58.0% | +2.9 |
| MI-11 (Michigan) | 59.5% | 62.3% | +2.8 |
| CO-03 (Colorado) | 47.4% | 49.0% | +1.6 |
| MN-02 (Minnesota) | 56.9% | 57.2% | +0.3 |
55 of 55 districts moved toward the Democratic candidate. Only districts whose votes are entered on Wikipedia and whose map did not change are included, so this is a partial sample, not all 435 districts; candidates, incumbency and turnout also differ between years.