Alaska governor race 2026
Dan S. Sullivan is the incumbent. Forecasters rate it Lean D. Polymarket favors Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (77%).
Candidates6 listed
| Candidate for governor | Running mate | Party | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | — | Alaska Democratic | nominee |
| Dan S. Sullivan | — | Alaska Republican | incumbent |
| Bernadette Wilson | — | n/a | nominee |
| Dave Bronson | — | n/a | nominee |
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | — | n/a | nominee |
| Treg Taylor | — | n/a | nominee |
Reported Names, party and status as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Governor races are funded under state law, so campaign money is filed with the state, not the FEC; we do not show it yet.
Forecasts and ratingsforecaster median and Polymarket
The ratings are two or more steps apart (for example, Toss-up to Likely).
Consensus (median of 7): Lean D Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | 2026-10-13 | flip from current holder |
| Inside Elections | Toss-up | 2026-10-01 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | 2026-10-06 | flip from current holder |
| Decision Desk HQ | Toss-up | 2026-10-11 | |
| Fox News | Toss-up | 2026-10-06 | |
| RealClearPolitics | Lean D | 2026-10-05 | flip from current holder |
| Silver Bulletin | Likely D | 2026-10-11 | flip from current holder |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 76.6% · Bernadette Wilson 21.5% · David Bronson 1.7% · Click Bishop 0.1% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability. Volume $1.5M, snapshot 2026-10-15. View the market