Alaska U.S. Senate race 2026
Dan S. Sullivan is the incumbent. Forecasters rate it Toss-up. Polymarket favors Mary Peltola (74%).
Candidates15 listed
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carol Hafner | Democratic | candidate | — | — | — | — |
| David Leslie ' | Democratic | candidate | — | — | — | — |
| Dustin Darden | Republican | candidate | — | — | — | — |
| Fred C. Grauberger | Republican | candidate | — | — | — | — |
| Heather McElwain | Republican | candidate | — | — | — | — |
| Richard Benedict Mayers | Republican | candidate | — | — | — | — |
| Dan S. Sullivan | n/a | incumbent | $9.1M | $3.9M | $7.3M | FEC |
| Earl D. "Skip" Southworth | Alaskan | candidate | — | — | — | — |
| Gerald L. Heikes | n/a | candidate | — | — | — | — |
| Mary Peltola | n/a | candidate | $18.5M | $13.9M | $4.6M | FEC |
| Reece Roberts | Independent politician | candidate | — | — | — | — |
| Richard Grayson | Green | candidate | — | — | — | — |
| Scott Kohlhaas | Libertarian | candidate | — | — | — | — |
| Shirley Saucerman | Independent politician | candidate | — | — | — | — |
| Sid Hill | Independent politician | candidate | — | — | — | — |
Nominees for this race are still being verified, so the list may include candidates who did not advance.
Reported Names, party and status as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). Money is from FEC filings through each candidate’s latest report. This race on FEC.gov
Forecasts and ratingsforecaster median and Polymarket
Some raters lean Democratic and others lean Republican in this race.
Consensus (median of 12): Toss-up Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up | 2026-10-06 | |
| Inside Elections | Toss-up | 2026-10-01 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | 2026-10-06 | flip from current holder |
| Decision Desk HQ | Lean D | 2026-10-07 | flip from current holder |
| Split Ticket | Lean D | 2026-10-07 | flip from current holder |
| The Economist | Toss-up | 2026-10-07 | |
| CBS News | Lean R | 2026-10-06 | |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean D | 2026-10-07 | flip from current holder |
| Fox News | Toss-up | 2026-10-06 | |
| MS NOW | Toss-up | 2026-09-16 | |
| RealClearPolitics | Toss-up | 2026-10-05 | |
| Silver Bulletin | Lean D | 2026-10-07 | flip from current holder |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Mary Peltola 73.5% · Sen. Dan Sullivan 26.5% · Ann Diener 0.1% · Dustin Darden 0.1% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability. Volume $1.3M, snapshot 2026-10-15. View the market