California's 23rd district: 2026 House race
California's 23rd district is held by Jay Obernolte (Republican). Jay Obernolte leads in reported fundraising with $1.5M. Forecasters rate it Safe R.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Obernolte | REP | Incumbent | $1.5M | $809K | $1.6M |
| Tessa Lynn Hodge | DEM | Challenger | $79K | $69K | $10K |
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)4
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Matthews | IND | Challenger | $175K | $175K | $0 |
| Paul Chakalian | DEM | Challenger | $73K | $73K | $0 |
| Charles Patrick Wallis | DEM | Challenger | $64K | $64K | $24 |
| Alexis L. Claiborne | DEM | Challenger | $12K | $6,341 | $2,655 |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Consensus (median of 5): Safe R Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe R | 2025-11-05 | dated |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | 2025-03-07 | dated |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | 2025-07-15 | dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Safe R | 2026-07-14 | dated |
| The Economist | Safe R | 2026-05-06 | dated |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 2.5% · Republican 97.2% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $101,473, snapshot 2026-10-15. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 764,069 |
| Median age | 34.7 |
| Median household income | $74,939 ±$1,419 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 21.2% |
| White, not Hispanic | 37.3% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 7.9% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 4.2% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 44.6% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 64.4% |
| People below the poverty line | 15.4% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 14.6% |
Heads up: California drew a new congressional map for 2026. These figures describe the old district lines, so they will not match the people who vote in this race.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Public attention in this race1 candidate with an article
| Candidate | Party | Views, 30 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Obernolte | REP | 6,999 | 100% |
Reported English Wikipedia page views, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-13. Only candidates with an article are counted; views show curiosity, not support.
Data on this page5/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 06/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 5 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Have it | Polymarket, volume $101K |
| 2024 result | Missing | not available |
| Financial disclosures | Have it | 2 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.