California's 45th district: 2026 House race
California's 45th district is held by Derek Tran (Democratic). Derek Tran leads in reported fundraising with $5.0M. Forecasters rate it Likely D.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Tran | DEM | Incumbent | $5.0M | $2.1M | $3.3M |
| Chuong Vo | REP | Challenger | $496K | $421K | $75K |
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)5
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Steel | REP | Challenger | $1.3M | $2.2M | $0 |
| Thomas Ky-Phong Vo | REP | Challenger | $757K | $757K | $0 |
| Chi Charlie Nguyen | REP | Challenger | $485K | $485K | $0 |
| Amy Phan West | REP | Challenger | $59K | $56K | $3,656 |
| Mark Andrew Leonard | REP | Challenger | $26K | $8,145 | $18K |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Consensus (median of 5): Likely D Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely D | 2026-07-16 | dated |
| Inside Elections | Likely D | 2026-10-01 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely D | 2026-09-29 | |
| Decision Desk HQ | Likely D | 2026-07-14 | dated |
| The Economist | Likely D | 2026-05-06 | dated |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 94.5% · Republican 5.5% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $45,189, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 748,896 |
| Median age | 40.8 |
| Median household income | $107,226 ±$1,685 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 38.7% |
| White, not Hispanic | 24.8% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 2.0% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 37.9% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 30.8% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 58.6% |
| People below the poverty line | 9.9% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 37.0% |
Heads up: California drew a new congressional map for 2026. These figures describe the old district lines, so they will not match the people who vote in this race.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Public attention in this race1 candidate with an article
| Candidate | Party | Views, 30 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Tran | DEM | 6,126 | 100% |
Reported English Wikipedia page views, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-13. Only candidates with an article are counted; views show curiosity, not support.
Data on this page3/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 06/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 5 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $45K |
| 2024 result | Missing | not available |
| Financial disclosures | Partial | 1 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.