California's 48th district: 2026 House race
California's 48th district has no incumbent running. Jim Desmond leads in reported fundraising with $2.3M. Forecasters rate it Lean D.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Desmond | REP | Open seat | $2.3M | $1.0M | $1.2M |
| Marni von Wilpert | DEM | Open seat | $2.2M | $1.3M | $825K |
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)10
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Riker | DEM | Open seat | $2.3M | $2.2M | $21K |
| Darrell Issa | REP | Incumbent | $2.1M | $1.0M | $2.7M |
| Abel Chavez | DEM | Open seat | $473K | $462K | $11K |
| Anuj Dixit | DEM | Open seat | $466K | $298K | $168K |
| Ferguson Porter | DEM | Open seat | $62K | $41K | $22K |
| Marc Iannarino | DEM | Open seat | $45K | $45K | $0 |
| Corinna Contreras | DEM | Open seat | $36K | $36K | $0 |
| Curtis Morrison | DEM | Open seat | $36K | $36K | $0 |
| Suzanne Marie Till | DEM | Open seat | $6,854 | $6,854 | $0 |
| Ammar Campa-Najjar | DEM | Open seat | $4,772 | $4,832 | $0 |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Consensus (median of 5): Lean D Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Lean D | 2026-03-12 | flip from current holder, dated |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D | 2025-12-05 | flip from current holder, dated |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | 2026-03-11 | flip from current holder, dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Likely D | 2026-07-14 | flip from current holder, dated |
| The Economist | Likely D | 2026-05-06 | flip from current holder, dated |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 93.5% · Republican 7.5% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $42,982, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 760,621 |
| Median age | 39.5 |
| Median household income | $113,202 ±$1,923 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 34.7% |
| White, not Hispanic | 52.5% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 3.1% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 6.7% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 30.7% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 71.4% |
| People below the poverty line | 8.2% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 16.9% |
Heads up: California drew a new congressional map for 2026. These figures describe the old district lines, so they will not match the people who vote in this race.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Public attention in this race2 candidates with an article
| Candidate | Party | Views, 30 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marni von Wilpert | DEM | 8,877 | 56% |
| Jim Desmond | REP | 7,110 | 44% |
Reported English Wikipedia page views, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-13. Only candidates with an article are counted; views show curiosity, not support.
Data on this page4/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 06/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 5 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $43K |
| 2024 result | Missing | not available |
| Financial disclosures | Have it | 2 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.