Illinois's 16th district: 2026 House race
Illinois's 16th district is held by Darin LaHood (Republican). Darin LaHood leads in reported fundraising with $3.7M. Forecasters rate it Safe R.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darin LaHood | REP | Incumbent | $3.7M | $2.4M | $6.7M |
| Paul Nolley | DEM | Challenger | $416K | $186K | $230K |
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)1
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Albright | DEM | Challenger | $19K | $19K | $0 |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Consensus (median of 4): Safe R Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe R | 2025-02-06 | dated |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | 2025-12-05 | dated |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | 2025-07-15 | dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Safe R | 2026-07-14 | dated |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 2.1% · Republican 96.8% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $68,976, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Last time (2024)R +99.8
Darin LaHood won by 99.8 points, with 311,108 votes counted.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darin LaHood | Republican | 310,925 | 99.9% |
| Scott Summers | Green | 183 | 0.1% |
Reported Results as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), top three shown. Under the district lines used in 2024.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 748,860 |
| Median age | 41.7 |
| Median household income | $84,411 ±$1,060 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 31.6% |
| White, not Hispanic | 83.9% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 2.4% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 2.5% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 7.3% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 78.5% |
| People below the poverty line | 8.2% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 4.7% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Public attention in this race1 candidate with an article
| Candidate | Party | Views, 30 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darin LaHood | REP | 4,417 | 100% |
Reported English Wikipedia page views, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-13. Only candidates with an article are counted; views show curiosity, not support.
Data on this page4/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 06/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 4 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $69K |
| 2024 result | Have it | same district lines |
| Financial disclosures | Partial | 1 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.