Virginia's 11th district: 2026 House race
Virginia's 11th district is held by James Walkinshaw (Democratic). James Walkinshaw leads in reported fundraising with $2.8M. Forecasters rate it Safe D.
Candidates and money2 on file
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Walkinshaw | DEM | Incumbent | $2.8M | $1.8M | $979K |
| Arthur Purves | REP | Open seat | $31K | $14K | $17K |
Also on the November ballot, with no FEC campaign record on file: Dianne Blais (Green).
Ballot status: nominees as listed on Wikipedia (text under CC BY-SA), matched to FEC records by name.
Reported Source: FEC, through each candidate's latest filing. Open this race on FEC.gov
Other FEC filers (not matched to a November nominee)5
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Roma | DEM | Challenger | $1.3M | $1.3M | $0 |
| Gerald Edward Connolly | DEM | Incumbent | $719K | $4.2M | $0 |
| Stella Pekarsky | DEM | Challenger | $399K | $398K | $1,245 |
| Bree Fram | DEM | Open seat | $289K | $288K | $1,379 |
| Daniel Lee | DEM | Open seat | $137K | $137K | $0 |
They may have lost a primary or withdrawn, or our name match may have missed them. Their records are kept for reference.
Forecasts and ratingsnational odds + who rates this race
Consensus (median of 4): Safe D Estimate
| Forecaster | Rating | Date listed | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Safe D | 2026-04-21 | dated |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | 2026-04-21 | dated |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | 2026-04-21 | dated |
| Decision Desk HQ | Safe D | 2026-07-14 | dated |
Ratings are each publisher's own, compiled from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0). The date is the one listed there; a rater may have changed its call since, and “dated” means more than 45 days old. Open the forecaster for its current rating.
Prediction market
Democratic 96.9% · Republican 1.4% Estimate
Polymarket price read as a probability (the two prices need not add up to exactly 100%). Volume $29,422, snapshot 2026-10-15. Thin market: small trades can move the price. View the market · About Polymarket
Open each forecaster for its current rating and method.
National picture: Democrats 90.5% to control the House on Polymarket Estimate. See all forecasts.
Last time (2024)D +34.0
Gerry Connolly won by 34.0 points, with 408,331 votes counted.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gerry Connolly | Democratic | 273,529 | 67.0% |
| Michael Van Meter | Republican | 134,802 | 33.0% |
Reported Results as compiled in Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0), top three shown. Under the district lines used in 2024.
Who lives hereCensus survey data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 785,090 |
| Median age | 38.9 |
| Median household income | $160,992 ±$1,927 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor’s degree or more | 68.3% |
| White, not Hispanic | 48.3% |
| Black, not Hispanic | 8.3% |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 22.2% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 14.8% |
| Homes lived in by their owners | 70.0% |
| People below the poverty line | 5.1% |
| Born outside the U.S. | 30.7% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2020-2024 5-year estimates, district lines of the 119th Congress, fetched 2026-10-15. These are survey estimates with margins of error; the Bureau publishes the error for each figure.
Public attention in this race1 candidate with an article
| Candidate | Party | Views, 30 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Walkinshaw | DEM | 5,525 | 100% |
Reported English Wikipedia page views, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-13. Only candidates with an article are counted; views show curiosity, not support.
Data on this page5/6 complete
| Data | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Nominees | Have it | listed on Wikipedia, matched to FEC |
| Campaign finance | Have it | FEC filings through 09/30/2026 |
| Forecaster ratings | Have it | 4 forecasters |
| Prediction market | Partial | Polymarket, volume $29K |
| 2024 result | Have it | same district lines |
| Financial disclosures | Have it | 2 of 2 candidates read |
So you can see what we have and what we do not. Missing is never treated as zero.